This briefing note, by Paul Cairney of the University of Stirling, presents the importance of distinguishing between uncertainty and ambiguity in the strategies aimed to develop evidence-informed policy making.
Policy studies often distinguish between uncertainty, defined as a lack of knowledge about a policy problem or its solution, and ambiguity, defined as the potential to produce more than one interpretation of a problem. With this in mind, reducing uncertainty can be thought of as a technical process for addressing an already well-defined policy problem: supplying the best evidence and delivering it to the right people at the right time. Reducing ambiguity can be thought of as a political process: exercising power to define a policy problem and prompting a demand for evidence.
The distinction has major implications for anyone seeking to influence policy makers and form coalitions with influential actors. In this paper, we highlight some of these implications…